Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 July 2018

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 18/0234Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/2158Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jul).

III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       18 Jul 071
  Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Jul 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  006/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  006/005-012/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	30%	15%
Minor storm	01%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	20%	30%	25%
Major-severe storm	15%	40%	25%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (551.4 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (18.36nT), the direction is North (5.05nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-67nT)

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