Viewing archive of Friday, 27 July 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 26/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/1723Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3945 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jul 067
  Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 066/066/066
  90 Day Mean        27 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 06:01 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Yellowknife, NT
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (551.78 km/sec.)

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