Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 August 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 484 km/s at 22/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4038 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 070 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 007/008-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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