Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 September 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Sep 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 19/0145Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8464 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Sep, 21 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (22 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 068 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/005-005/005-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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