Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 August 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2018 Aug 18 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 18 Aug 2018 until 20 Aug 2018
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
18 Aug 2018066009
19 Aug 2018065007
20 Aug 2018065022

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The sunspot group (NOAA 2718) showed a decay and no significant flare has been recorded. Quiet flaring conditions are expected for the next 24-hour period.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind measurements remained under the influence of the solar wind associated to the Coronal Hole (which has crossed the central meridian on August 11). The wind speed reached 575 km/s; The interplanetary magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT; The Southward magnetic component fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT. The solar wind speed is now expected to slowly decrease today and tomorrow. The solar wind will then be re-enhanced due to arrival of the fast wind associated with the equatorial coronal hole that has reached the central meridian on August 17.

Due to the enhanced solar wind conditions, the geomagnetic conditions were mainly unsettled (with a short period of 4 around 00:00 UT on August 17 recorded by K-index (Dourbes), and around 12:00 UT on August 18 recorded by Kp-index (NOAA)). Unsettled conditions are expected until while the Earth remains under the influence of the solar wind associated to the coronal hole. The geomagnetic conditions will slowly begin to return to the nominal value today and tomorrow.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Aug 2018

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux067
AK Chambon La Forêt018
AK Wingst018
Estimated Ap018
Estimated international sunspot number012 - Based on 34 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 18:45 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Arkhangelsk

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Riga
Perm, Saint Petersburg, Yaroslavl
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.06nT), the direction is moderately South (-13.45nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-143nT)

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