Viewing archive of Monday, 5 November 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 05/0508Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 04/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 04/2219Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 068 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 023/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 011/015-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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