Viewing archive of Friday, 23 November 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 23/0032Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/0948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/0854Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 069 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 006/005-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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