Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 09/0109Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1978 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jan).

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       09 Jan 072
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 071/070/070
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  006/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	15%
Minor storm	01%	01%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	20%	20%	25%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	20%

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu
Arkhangelsk
Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Oslo
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar

The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.94 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.28nT), the direction is North (5.02nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-162nT)

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