Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 January 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
30/0611Z from Region 2733 (N04W89). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 Jan) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 326 km/s at 29/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1563 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01
Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jan 074 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 073/071/072 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 014/020-014/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
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