Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 February 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 28/1929Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 27/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 28/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2384 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 070 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 019/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 016/020-012/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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