Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 1 February 2019

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 01/1015Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 31/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 31/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       01 Feb 072
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  012/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  012/016-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	20%	20%
Minor storm	10%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	20%	20%
Minor storm	30%	25%	30%
Major-severe storm	30%	25%	25%

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Arkhangelsk

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Aalborg
Tallinn
Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Saint Petersburg, Surgut, Syktyvkar
Stockholm

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.44nT), the direction is North (13.76nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-149nT)

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