Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 May 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 28/2051Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 28/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
28/2018Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 May, 30 May) and
quiet levels on day three (31 May).
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 068 Predicted 29 May-31 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 28 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 011/016-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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