Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 May 2019

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 May 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 29/1847Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 29/0100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 171 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 May) and quiet levels on day three (01 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 May 068
  Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        29 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 May  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  009/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm35%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%10%

All times in UTC

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