Viewing archive of Friday, 27 September 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 722 km/s at 27/2030Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 27/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 27/1323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 066 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 013/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 030/045-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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