Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 October 2019

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 612 km/s at 24/1857Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 24/0904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 24/0906Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Oct).

III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       24 Oct 065
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 065/065/065
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  014/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  024/030-012/018-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	45%	30%	30%
Minor storm	30%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	05%	15%	15%
Minor storm	20%	30%	30%
Major-severe storm	70%	40%	40%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar

Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 8
Threshold reached: 20:54 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå

The density of the solar wind is moderate (20.34 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.37nT), the direction is North (5.79nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-134nT)

Latest news

Tuesday, 15 April 2025

CME arrival, G3 storm watch

Friday, 28 March 2025

X1.1 solar flare

Monday, 24 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

More news

Latest forum messages

2025/04/12-13 Filament CMEs 2025/04/16 G3 Watch 379 AR4064 6 Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1739 AR 4060 31 AR4062 32

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro