Viewing archive of Friday, 25 October 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 25/1640Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 25/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 24/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 21151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 069 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 024/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 016/022-016/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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