Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 November 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2019 Nov 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 17 Nov 2019 until 19 Nov 2019
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
17 Nov 2019070007
18 Nov 2019070007
19 Nov 2019070007

Bulletin

The solar activity has been at very low levels over the past 24 hours. The Sun is currently spotless and the X-ray flux remains below B-level. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours.

No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal values.

The expected enhancements in the solar environment due to the influence of the coronal hole (which has reached the central meridian on Nov 13) has arrived yesterday on Nov 16 around 17:00 UTC. The total magnetic field reached 9.5 nT at 18:00 UTC, the solar wind speed raised up to 450 km/s, and the southern component of the magnetic filed fluctuated between -7.7 nT and 9.2 nT. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist as long as the Earth remains under the influence of the coronal hole effects.

While quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed with Kp-index (NOAA), quiet to unsettle conditions were observed with the local station in Dourbes (K-Dourbes = 3) in response to the solar wind enhancement. More active conditions is not excluded, especially with the slow increase of the solar wind speed and possibly longer period of southward directed Bz component.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Nov 2019

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux070
AK Chambon La Forêt011
AK Wingst007
Estimated Ap006
Estimated international sunspot number000 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu
Arkhangelsk
Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Oslo
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar
The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.94 p/cm3)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.28nT), the direction is North (5.02nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-162nT)

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