Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 November 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2019 Nov 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 20 Nov 2019 until 22 Nov 2019
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
20 Nov 2019070007
21 Nov 2019070018
22 Nov 2019070009

Bulletin

The solar activity has been at very low levels over the past 24 hours. The Sun is currently spotless and the X-ray flux remains below B-level. However, a compact bright structure, located at low-latitude near the central meridian, has shown some evidence of activity. There is currently a low-latitude positive-polarity patchy coronal hole located in the Western Hemisphere. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours.

No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal values.

The solar wind speed has decreased from around 350 to 330 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated between 1 nT and 4 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-1 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase later today / tomorrow, due to the arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) / CIR related to a patchy low-latitude positive polarity Coronal Hole that passed the central meridian a couple of days ago.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Nov 2019

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux///
AK Chambon La Forêt///
AK Wingst///
Estimated Ap///
Estimated international sunspot number000 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Arkhangelsk

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Aalborg
Tallinn
Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Saint Petersburg, Surgut, Syktyvkar
Stockholm
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.44nT), the direction is North (13.76nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-149nT)

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