Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 March 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 03/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 04/1714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/1613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 388 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 070 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
OuluArkhangelsk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
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