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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Apr 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 20/0826Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 20/1355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 20/0810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 185 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 068 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 011/014-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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