Viewing archive of Friday, 21 August 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 331 km/s at 21/0805Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Aug 071
  Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 070/069/069
  90 Day Mean        21 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Aug  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  006/005-007/006-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%20%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK

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