Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 October 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2020 Oct 04 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 04 Oct 2020 until 06 Oct 2020
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

10cm fluxAp
04 Oct 2020072003
05 Oct 2020071003
06 Oct 2020071008

Bulletin

The solar activity was at very low levels in the past 24 hours. The solar disk remains spotless and no significant flares are expected over the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is above 10^4 pfu, continuously exceeding the 10^3 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain elevated over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions returned to nominal levels. The total interplanetary magnetic field, as recorded by ACE and DSCOVR, varied between 1.6 nT and 4.5 nT with a weak north-south component fluctuating in the range of -3 nT to 3 nT. In the past 24 hours the solar wind speed declined from 450 km/s to 360 km/s. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet with maximum recorded NOAA Kp index equal to 2 and a short locally unsettled period with K Dourbes index equal to 3. Quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Oct 2020

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux072
AK Chambon La Forêt008
AK Wingst005
Estimated Ap004
Estimated international sunspot number000 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 16:44 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Surgut, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Kazan, Moscow, Perm, Yaroslavl
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.16nT), the direction is moderately South (-14.28nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-150nT)

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