Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 October 2020

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 17/1124Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/1307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 321 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Oct).

III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       17 Oct 073
  Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct 073/073/073
  90 Day Mean        17 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	10%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	15%	15%	20%
Major-severe storm	10%	10%	20%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.15nT), the direction is North (9.94nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-63nT)

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