Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 24/1555Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 24/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
24/0107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 916 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Oct, 27 Oct)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 072 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 65% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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