Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 October 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 24/1555Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 24/0107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 916 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Oct, 27 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Oct 072
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  012/015-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%30%
Minor storm20%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm50%65%45%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Reykjavik
Kiruna

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Luleå, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (543.1 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (20.56nT), the direction is moderately South (-11.8nT).

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