Viewing archive of Friday, 23 October 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 23/1906Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 23/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 621 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Oct 072
  Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  009/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  015/020-012/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%40%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm65%50%65%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 23:37 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-63nT)

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