Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/0927Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 22/1049Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 21/2212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 22/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1002 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Nov), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (24 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 088 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 090/092/094 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 019/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 015/018-008/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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