Viewing archive of Monday, 23 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (24 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 23/0245Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2400 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Nov, 25 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 096 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 098/100/100 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 019/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 009/010-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 45% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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