Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 416 km/s at 20/0901Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/0407Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 227 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 084 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 010/012-007/008-012/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 55% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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