Viewing archive of Monday, 21 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 21/1357Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 21/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
21/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 265 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Dec, 24 Dec)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 080 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 008/010-012/018-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NuukReykjavik
Latest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
Friday, 11 April 2025
22:39 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.05 flare
22:24 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 50GW at 23:16 UTC
22:24 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.05)
17:09 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.08 flare
16:51 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.04)
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/11 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 141.4 +7.2 |
| Last 30 days | 137.1 -3 |