Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 22/2028Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 21/2322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
21/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Dec, 24
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 086 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 086/086/088 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 012/018-018/022-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 65% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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