Viewing archive of Monday, 18 January 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 312 km/s at 18/2053Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/1905Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jan, 20 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 075
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 077/082/085
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  011/012-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm55%45%25%

All times in UTC

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