Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 19 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1754Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 339 km/s at 19/1222Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0136Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Jan, 21 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 078 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 011/014-011/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 45% | 35% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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