Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1253Z from Region 2798 (S17E51). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jan,
22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 20/0141Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0604Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (23 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 077 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 006/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 011/014-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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