Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 24/1237Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 24/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/1039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1539 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 087 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 011/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 011/015-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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