Viewing archive of Friday, 27 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 27/0616Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/0331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/0556Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2310 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 106 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 106/104/102 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTJuneau, AK
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