Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 November 2020

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 26/1253Z from Region 2786 (S17E41). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 26/1704Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1803 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).

III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov

Class M	15%	15%	15%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       26 Nov 106
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov 106/108/105
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	10%	10%
Minor storm	05%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	20%	20%
Minor storm	25%	20%	20%
Major-severe storm	30%	10%	10%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.85nT), the direction is North (12.24nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-55nT)

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