Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Nov,
30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 28/0004Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1673 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 110 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 108/108/106 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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