Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 16/1013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
16/0832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/1049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18
Jan, 19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 078 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/010-011/012-013/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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