Viewing archive of Monday, 7 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Dec) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 430 km/s at 07/1023Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
07/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
07/0942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 664 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Dec, 09 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (10 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 090 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 090/088/088 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 006/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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