Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/1327Z from Region 2790 (S23W02). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec,
08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 06/1937Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
06/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1955Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 839 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 091 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 090/090/088 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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