Viewing archive of Monday, 9 November 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Nov 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 09/0025Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
09/1358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 820 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 090 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 001/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna
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