Viewing archive of Monday, 4 January 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 04/1407Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 652 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jan 078
  Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 077/077/077
  90 Day Mean        04 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  001/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  007/010-015/018-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%25%
Minor storm10%25%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%60%30%

All times in UTC

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