Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 05/1952Z. Total IMF reached 18
nT at 05/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
05/1351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1174 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (08
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 075 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 015/020-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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