Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 January 2021

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 09/1653Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/0602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jan).

III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       09 Jan 074
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	10%
Minor storm	05%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	25%	25%	20%
Major-severe storm	25%	25%	15%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

The density of the solar wind is moderate (21.47 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.51nT), the direction is North (5.4nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-110nT)

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