Viewing archive of Friday, 22 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 358 km/s at 22/1900Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/1433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 078 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 006/005-007/007-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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