Viewing archive of Friday, 22 January 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 22/1900Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jan 078
  Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  006/005-007/007-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%20%25%

All times in UTC

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