Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May,
13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 359 km/s at 11/0600Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 220 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 May, 13 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 076 Predicted 12 May-14 May 076/078/078 90 Day Mean 11 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 007/008-014/016-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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