Viewing archive of Monday, 10 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 May,
12 May, 13 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 10/0422Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
10/0514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 619 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 077 Predicted 11 May-13 May 077/077/080 90 Day Mean 10 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 006/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 008/008-007/008-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 40% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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