Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/1358Z from Region 2822 (N18E45). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 May,
11 May, 12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 346 km/s at 09/1811Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/1952Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 389 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (10 May, 12
May) and quiet levels on day two (11 May).
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 076 Predicted 10 May-12 May 077/077/079 90 Day Mean 09 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 008/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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