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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Jun) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (09 Jun, 10 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 07/1719Z, though all RTSW from
DSCOVR data after 07/1600 was largely flagged as being suspect. Total
IMF reached 12 nT at 07/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -11 nT at 07/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 081 Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 011/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun to 10 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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