Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 June 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 15/1646Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 15/1214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 15/1208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 255 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 076 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 007/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/020-015/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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